Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| O/U 1.5 | 95% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 1.5 | 92% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | 86% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| O/U 2.5 | 85% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 2.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) | 71% |
| O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-3.5) | 53% |
| O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Team to Advance | 50% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 15% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava (-1.5) | 0% |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 99% chance of paris saint-germain fc vs. šk slovan bratislava - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for September 9 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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