PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

PFK CSKA Sofia and Maccabi Tel Aviv will contest a UEFA Europa League qualifying tie on 13 August 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is pricing this outcome as effectively impossible, though the settlement criteria remain unspecified in the available description. With the fixture scheduled for 2:00 PM ET and the settlement window closing at 18:00 UTC the same day, traders have a compressed timeframe to assess the underlying event and any ancillary markets tied to it.

Historical precedent in Europa League qualifying rounds shows that Israeli clubs have competed regularly in European competition, with Maccabi Tel Aviv reaching the group stage in recent seasons. CSKA Sofia, as a Bulgarian representative, typically enters earlier qualifying rounds. The 0% probability reading suggests either a binary outcome already determined (such as a walkover, disqualification, or administrative ruling), a market definition so narrow that consensus views it as unachievable, or insufficient liquidity and participation. Comparable markets on minor European fixtures often see extreme probabilities when settlement hinges on specific match events rather than simple win/loss outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track official UEFA announcements regarding fixture confirmation, team eligibility, or any schedule changes in the days before 13 August. Injury or suspension news affecting key players, visa complications for either squad, or weather-related delays could shift the underlying dynamics. The tight settlement window—closing just six hours after kickoff—means real-time information flow during the match itself becomes critical for resolving any ambiguity in the market definition.

Methodology

We track PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.