Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 55% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 53% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Winner | 52% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 48% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 38% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 38% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 37% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 31% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 14% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 73% YES probability for Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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