Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs Global Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs Global Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs Global Esports (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs Global Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs Global Esports (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs Global Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs Global Esports (+9.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs Global Esports (+9.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-10.5) vs Global Esports (+10.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-11.5) vs Global Esports (+11.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr vs global esports (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between MIBR and Global Esports in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 3 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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