Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| France | 63% |
| Argentina | 20% |
| United States | 5% |
| England | 4% |
| Brazil | 4% |
| Norway | 3% |
| Spain | 2% |
| Colombia | 1% |
| Portugal | 1% |
| Switzerland | 1% |
| Mexico | 1% |
| Belgium | 1% |
| Cape Verde | 0% |
| Croatia | 0% |
| Curaçao | 0% |
| Czechia | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Japan | 0% |
| Netherlands | 0% |
| Paraguay | 0% |
| Scotland | 0% |
| South Africa | 0% |
| Tunisia | 0% |
| Country A | 0% |
| Country C | 0% |
| Country D | 0% |
| Country E | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% |
| Egypt | 0% |
| Germany | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Algeria | 0% |
| Australia | 0% |
| Austria | 0% |
| Canada | 0% |
| Haiti | 0% |
| Iraq | 0% |
| Morocco | 0% |
| New Zealand | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% |
| Senegal | 0% |
| South Korea | 0% |
| Sweden | 0% |
| Türkiye | 0% |
| Uruguay | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 0% |
| DR Congo | 0% |
| Ecuador | 0% |
| Ghana | 0% |
| Jordan | 0% |
| Panama | 0% |
| Country B | 0% |
Market context
The World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 63% YES. This market will resolve to the nation that records the most total goals through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the of…
Methodology
This page reviews World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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