Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Game Spread +/-5.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open wta: mirra andreeva vs eva lys. This market refers to the tennis match between Mirra Andreeva and Eva Lys in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mirra Andreeva' if…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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