Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 21.5 | 59% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 Winner | 49% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 2 Winner | 49% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Match O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Game Spread +/-1.5 | 44% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 27% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open wta: coco gauff vs elena rybakina stands at 75% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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