Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You | 85% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 2 Winner | 69% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 67% |
| Completed Match | 54% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 4% |
| China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to china open, qualification: marina bassols ribera vs xiaodi you. This market refers to the tennis match between Marina Bassols Ribera and Xiaodi You in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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