Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf m25 lausanne men: dany robas vs filippo valdetara. This market refers to the tennis match between Dany Robas and Filippo Valdetara in the ITF M25 Lausanne Men, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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