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LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 90% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 90% Odd/Even Total Kills 90% Game 2 Winner 88% Volume: $256K Liquidity: $688K Closes: 12 Aug 2026
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LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor90%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
Game 2 Winner88%
O/U 2.5 Games88%
Match Winner76%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game Handicap: BW (-1.5) vs Dark Passage (+1.5)0%

Market context

Market consensus: 90% chance of lol: bushido wildcats vs dark passage (bo3) - tcl play-ins. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Mid bracket round 2 match between Bushido Wildcats and Dark Passage in the TCL Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 12 at 1:30PM ET. This market …

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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