Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 95% |
| Game 1 Winner | 91% |
| Game 2 Winner | 90% |
| Game 3 Winner | 89% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 62% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 60% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 60% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 56% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 48% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 45% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 42% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 37% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 37% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 36% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 35% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 31% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 23% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 22% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 20% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 5% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 4% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 98% YES probability for LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Hanwha Life Esports and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 2 at 11:00PM E…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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