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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Comparison of odds and platforms for "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Who Will Win 2026.

Match Winner 90% Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) 76% Game 1 Winner 75% Game 2 Winner 75% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $378K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)76%
Game 1 Winner75%
Game 2 Winner75%
Game 3 Winner75%
Game 4 Winner60%
O/U 3.5 Games56%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?49%
First Blood in Game 2?47%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)45%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?37%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?33%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?32%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

Market consensus: 90% chance of lol: lyon vs shopify rebellion (bo5) - lcs playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This …

Methodology

We track LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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