Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 74% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Game 1 Winner | 41% |
| Game 2 Winner | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Match Winner | 40% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 36% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 18% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 18% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 14% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 14% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: t1 vs gen.g (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. This market refers to the LoL 3rd Place match between T1 and Gen.G in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 19 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the matc…
Methodology
We track LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs on Who Will Win 2026
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