Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Match Winner | 20% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: team secret vs karmine corp (bo3) - esports world cup group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Team Secret and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 15 at 9:40AM ET. T…
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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