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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) 85% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? 72% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? 66% Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) 60% Volume: $159K Liquidity: $639K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)85%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?72%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5?66%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)60%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon53%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon53%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 5?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5?50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
First Blood in Game 1?42%
First Blood in Game 2?42%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors42%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors41%
O/U 3.5 Games40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?38%
First Blood in Game 4?37%
Game 4 Winner36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?36%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
First Blood in Game 3?26%
Game 2 Winner17%
Game 3 Winner17%
Game 1 Winner16%
Any Player Quadra Kill14%
O/U 4.5 Games12%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor12%
Match Winner7%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors6%
Any Player Penta Kill5%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to lol: team secret whales vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:00PM ET. This market…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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