Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros game is priced with the **Astros as the favourite**, while the prediction market’s current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** leaves the Guardians as a full contrarian angle. Sportsbooks have Houston around **-136 to -142**, with Cleveland roughly **+113 to +120**, so the consensus is clearly leaning Astros even though the market is not assigning the Guardians any meaningful win chance at all.[1][3][4][7]

For handicapper context, that kind of zeroed-out crowd price usually only makes sense if traders are leaning on a strong pitcher, lineup, or travel edge; here, the public-market gap looks much wider than the sportsbook gap. Cleveland comes in with the better overall record at **41-36** versus Houston’s **36-42**, but Houston’s home-field status and slightly stronger market respect still make them the favourite.[7][4] Recent preview pieces also split on form: one notes Houston’s run of favourable home spots, while another points out Cleveland’s success as an underdog and in Sunday day games against AL West opposition.[3]

The main catalysts are the final line-ups, any late pitching or rest changes, and whether the game starts on time, because postponement keeps the market open until completion. As of the latest available previews, the matchup is scheduled for **2:10 pm ET at Daikin Park**, with no indication from the supplied sources of a cancellation scenario; if a make-up is required, that would matter more than usual because this market stays live until the game is actually finished.[5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.