Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals meet in an NL Central fixture, with the market currently pricing Pittsburgh at 0% YES and St. Louis as the clear favourite. That makes the Cardinals the consensus side by a wide margin, and the only meaningful value case is a contrarian one on the Pirates if the line is overstating St. Louis form. Recent head-to-head results cut the other way: St. Louis has won the last five against Pittsburgh, including an 11-7 result on 28 April and a 10-5 win on 30 April, both in Pittsburgh. ESPN’s game notes from that series also show the Cardinals scoring heavily early, which matters when markets are heavily skewed to one side.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late line-up scratches, and whether the Cardinals’ recent offensive production carries over away from home. The April sweep came against a Pirates staff that struggled to contain traffic on the bases, so any change in pitching matchup could alter the handicap materially. Recent ESPN coverage of the series highlighted St. Louis’ bats waking up in the opening games, while StatMuse shows the Cardinals 5-0 across their last five against Pittsburgh, which supports the current consensus but also leaves little room for price inefficiency unless the market has ignored a Pirates pitching edge or a Cardinals rest spot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.