Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami and Philadelphia meet in MLS regular-season play on 24 May 2026, with the crowd currently pricing Miami's victory at 47 per cent. That probability sits notably below the historical baseline for home advantage in MLS fixtures, where sides playing at their own ground typically command 50–55 per cent win probability depending on recent form and squad depth.

Miami's trajectory through the 2025–26 season will be the primary frame for assessing this line. The club's investment in attacking talent and their record against Eastern Conference rivals over the preceding 18 months should anchor expectations; if they've maintained a winning record at home against mid-table sides like Philadelphia, the 47 per cent discount reflects either genuine weakness or market overreaction to recent results. Philadelphia's away record—historically one of the weaker metrics for the Union—provides a natural counterweight. The Union have struggled to convert points on the road in recent campaigns, a structural vulnerability that typically widens against sides with functional attacking play.

Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight before kick-off, particularly injury status for Miami's key attacking players and Philadelphia's defensive spine. Fixture congestion in late May, when both sides may be managing load ahead of the play-offs, could suppress goal output and favour defensive solidity. Recent head-to-head records and any mid-season managerial changes will also shift the calculus. At 47 per cent, the market is pricing Miami as a slight underdog at home—a positioning that warrants scrutiny against their historical home conversion rates.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.