Nashville SC vs. New York City FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Nashville SC travel to New York City FC on Saturday, 23 May 2026 in an MLS regular-season fixture. The crowd-implied probability of 25% reflects Nashville as the underdog, pricing a road win at roughly 1-in-4 odds. This is a mid-season matchup with significant playoff implications already forming, particularly for a Nashville side that has invested heavily in roster depth over the past two seasons.

Nashville's away record and NYCFC's home form provide the historical scaffolding here. Over the past three MLS seasons, Nashville has won approximately 28% of road matches, whilst NYCFC has maintained a home win rate near 45%. The 25% probability sits close to Nashville's baseline away conversion rate, suggesting the market has priced the fixture largely on historical splits rather than current-season momentum. If Nashville enters May with a stronger-than-usual road record or NYCFC's home advantage has eroded due to injuries or tactical shifts, value may exist on the underdog.

Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight before kickoff: Nashville's availability of key attacking midfielders, NYCFC's defensive depth, and any fixture congestion affecting either side's rotation decisions. Recent MLS scheduling has compressed fixture lists in May, and fatigue can shift home-field advantage. Additionally, weather conditions at Yankee Stadium in late May—humidity and occasional rain—historically favour teams with pressing intensity, a variable worth tracking as lineups crystallise closer to the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Nashville SC vs. New York City FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.