Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 77% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 233.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 30% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 21% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 83% chance of rockets vs. spurs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $78K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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