Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| O/U 212.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 218.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 56% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 221.5 | 54% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 222.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 47% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 224.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| O/U 225.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| O/U 228.5 | 39% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 35% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 231.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 234.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 22% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 20% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 78% probability to knicks vs. celtics. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $91K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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