Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 93% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 87% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 83% |
| O/U 227.5 | 82% |
| O/U 229.5 | 79% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 230.5 | 77% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 73% |
| O/U 233.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| O/U 235.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 68% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 68% |
| O/U 236.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 64% |
| O/U 238.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 63% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 61% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 60% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 56% |
| O/U 242.5 | 55% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 51% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 51% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 48% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 44% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 44% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| O/U 249.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| O/U 252.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Wizards vs. Bulls. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $211K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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