Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 99% |
| O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 73% |
| Bengals vs. Eagles | 71% |
| O/U 18.5 | 57% |
| O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| O/U 28.5 | 52% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| O/U 46.5 | 52% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Bengals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bengals vs. Eagles: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bengals vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| O/U 32.5 | 44% |
| O/U 36.5 | 33% |
| O/U 38.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| O/U 40.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 44.5 | 11% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 50.5 | 5% |
| O/U 56.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 99% chance of bengals vs. eagles. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 28 at 8:00PM ET: If Bengals wins, the market will resolve to "Bengals". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If the g…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $126K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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