Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H Moneyline | 75% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| O/U 42.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 58% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 50.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 30% |
| Spread -17.5 | 29% |
| Spread -19.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 56.5 | 22% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 15% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
Market context
Chiefs vs. Dolphins — current market-implied probability: 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If Dolphins wins, the market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $133K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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