SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Napoli travel to Udinese on Sunday, 24 May 2026, in a late-season Serie A fixture. The crowd-implied probability sits at 100% YES, suggesting near-certainty in the outcome the market is pricing. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny, particularly given the settlement window closes mid-afternoon on match day, leaving minimal room for late-breaking team news to influence pricing.

Napoli's historical record against Udinese provides context for assessing whether consensus odds reflect genuine dominance or overconfidence. Over the past decade, Napoli has won roughly 60–65% of meetings with Udinese across all competitions, with Udinese securing occasional upsets, particularly at the Stadio Friuli. A 100% probability effectively prices out any realistic upset scenario—a threshold rarely justified in Serie A, where mid-table sides regularly trouble top-four contenders, especially late in the season when fixture congestion and squad rotation create vulnerabilities.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly injury updates for Napoli's key attacking players and confirmation of Udinese's availability. Late-season form divergence matters significantly: if Napoli are chasing European qualification or title contention, they may field a strong XI, whereas a secured position could invite rotation. Udinese's own objectives—safety confirmation or European chase—will shape their intensity. The settlement window's tight timing means any significant pre-match developments announced Sunday morning could move the market sharply, though the current 100% reading leaves minimal room for repricing downward.

Methodology

We track SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.