Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 97% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, england vs. dr congo - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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