World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is priced at **4% YES**, which makes **No** the clear favourite and leaves only a narrow contrarian case for a high-incident tournament. That is consistent with the scoring environment around World Cup penalties: even in a competition with plenty of shoot-outs, the number of *in-play* penalties that are either missed or saved is usually modest, and the pool of takers is heavily concentrated in a small group of elite finishers. Historical World Cup penalty records also show how dependent this market is on a few high-leverage events rather than steady accumulation; for example, the all-time individual misses list is topped by only a handful of players, and recent stars such as Messi and Kane have had mixed but limited sample sizes from the spot[5][6][9]. The handicapper’s read is therefore that the crowd is broadly right to anchor near a low-single-digit tail outcome, with value only if you think the expanded 2026 format materially lifts the number of awarded penalties.

The catalysts are fixture volume, refereeing trend, and which teams reach the later rounds, because more matches and more knockout pressure create more chances for spot-kicks. The 2026 tournament’s larger field and new schedule increase the raw number of games, which is the main bull case for **YES**, but a lot still depends on whether referees call penalties at a faster clip and whether the elite finishers convert efficiently. Recent reporting has already highlighted the penalty record of top takers going into the tournament, with Messi and Kane tied on World Cup penalty attempts and a mix of goals, saves and misses in that sample[5]. For traders, the consensus sits with **No**, while the value spot is a contrarian **Yes** view built on tournament expansion, knockout variance and a run of early penalties being saved rather than converted.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.