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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Map 1 Winner 93% Match Winner 87% Map 2 Winner 71% Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) 65% Volume: $558K Liquidity: $114K Closes: 30 Sept 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner93%
Match Winner87%
Map 2 Winner71%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)65%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.563%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.563%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs FUT Esports (+7.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5)50%
O/U 2.5 Games32%

Market context

Market consensus: 93% chance of valorant: 100 thieves vs fut esports (bo3) - vct champions group a. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and FUT Esports in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This m…

Methodology

We track Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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