Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-9.5) vs MIBR LOS (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-10.5) vs MIBR LOS (+10.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: mibr los vs team heretics (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between MIBR LOS and Team Heretics in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We track Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports … on Who Will Win 2026
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