Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running below the level that would clear this market, with IMF PortWatch showing reduced transit calls since late February after attacks on commercial shipping. At 44% YES, the crowd is leaning slightly towards a recovery by the end of July, but that still leaves the underdog as the market’s current shape. The key question is whether the 7-day average can get back to 60 or more and stay there long enough for IMF PortWatch to publish it, rather than whether isolated convoys or one-off sailings resume.

Comparable episodes suggest the strait can normalise quickly once insurance, security and routing concerns ease, but the reverse is also true: traffic often rebounds in fits and starts rather than in one clean move. Kalshi’s nearby contract for a later return to normal has implied odds of 34% before August and 45% before September, which implies this July window is already pricing an early recovery premium. That leaves some value, if any, on the short side: the market is not demanding a full structural fix, only a sustained rise in recorded arrivals.

Traders should watch for any shift in maritime security advisories, especially from UKMTO and JMIC, alongside tanker scheduling and whether ships are willing to transit without added escort or routing changes. Recent coverage has pointed to Iranian claims that the strait remains open under security conditions, but also to reports of an informal toll of up to $2 million per voyage for some vessels, which would discourage throughput even if the waterway is not physically closed. The practical catalyst is not a headline about “reopening” but a steady pick-up in reported ship calls that pushes the 7-day average over the threshold before 31 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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