Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, with daily transits for non-Iranian ships stuck in single digits as of mid-March 2026, a stark drop from the pre-crisis average of over 153 vessels per day [2]. Since the conflict began, traffic has diminished by over 95 percent, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and cutting global oil supply by 20 percent [3]. Although a ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect on 8 April, only 45 ships have passed since, indicating that diplomatic agreements have not yet translated into operational normality [3].

Historical precedents suggest that even after agreements, recovery is slow and unpredictable; following a memorandum of understanding in June, traffic rose to just 42.5 percent of peacetime levels, averaging 28 vessels over the last five days [4]. The US-Iran deal stipulates restoration within 30 days, yet technical hurdles like mine clearance and potential Iranian fees create significant uncertainty [5]. With the crowd-implied probability at 1 percent YES, the market correctly identifies the underdog status of a full return to 60 daily transits by July 31, though contrarian value might exist if the 60-day negotiation phase yields faster-than-expected mine removal.

Traders must monitor the 60-day negotiation window’s expiry and any announcements regarding mine clearance operations, as these are the primary dependencies for restoring flow [5]. Recent data from Kpler shows traffic remains far below prewar levels despite the preliminary agreement, with movement described as unpredictable [5]. A breakthrough would likely require explicit confirmation from IMF Portwatch that the 7-day moving average has breached the 60-vessel threshold, a metric currently unsupported by the single-digit daily figures observed in recent months [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.