How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remained a heavily disrupted trade lane in spring 2026, with IMF Portwatch-style reporting showing traffic far below the pre-crisis norm of about 138 transits a day. That makes the 0% YES price a clear favourite to stay under the settlement threshold if the week of 11–17 May was still marked by low participation. The market consensus appears to be that shipping had not normalised, so the main value case is on the underdog side only if operators resumed running convoys or if traffic rebounded faster than the headline security picture suggested.

Comparable flare-ups have shown that Hormuz flows can stay suppressed for weeks even after the initial shock, rather than snapping straight back. In March, reports cited by Lloyd’s List and maritime commentary described transits as “barely” moving through the strait after attacks on merchant shipping, while carriers added surcharges and rerouted where possible. That history matters here: if owners had already shifted loadings to alternative export points or kept vessels outside the Gulf, the weekly total could remain much closer to the recent depressed baseline than to normal traffic, which supports the market’s current underdog pricing on a recovery.

Traders should watch any security statements, convoy guidance, or sanction-related enforcement that might alter owners’ willingness to enter the strait, plus any refinery or export schedules that force tanker liftings through Hormuz. UANI’s 11 May shipping update noted that traffic remained far below normal, which suggests the key catalyst is not demand but whether risk perception changes quickly enough for insured sailings to restart. Any escalation or fresh incident would favour the 0% YES side; a sharp operational easing or confirmed return of regular sailings would be the main contrarian angle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.