Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic

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Market context

Raphael Collignon, a Belgian qualifier, faces Australian Aleksandar Vukic in the opening round of Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The market is pricing Collignon at 100% implied probability, suggesting near-certainty of his advancement. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny given the inherent volatility of first-round clay-court tennis, where seeding and ranking disparities often compress on the slow surface.

Collignon's recent trajectory on clay has been modest; he has struggled to maintain consistency on the ATP circuit and typically relies on qualifying runs to access major tournaments. Vukic, conversely, has shown improved form on slower surfaces over the past two seasons, with several deep runs in ATP 250 events. Historical precedent suggests that when unheralded qualifiers face players with established clay credentials, the consensus frequently overweights the qualifier's breakthrough narrative. The 100% probability reflects either exceptional recent form from Collignon or a significant information asymmetry in the market's favour.

Traders should monitor official draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through to the settlement window closing on 31 May. Collignon's fitness status and recent match play leading into Roland Garros will be critical; clay requires specific preparation, and qualifiers often arrive fatigued. Vukic's seeding position and draw placement relative to other Australian contingents may also influence tactical preparation. Weather delays are routine at Roland Garros, and the seven-day resolution window provides buffer against scheduling disruptions, though incomplete matches would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.