Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri’s Cervia meeting with Max Alcala Gurri is being priced at 0% YES, so the market is effectively treating Guerrieri as a non-runner despite the fixture being listed for today. That is a clear outlier versus the underlying tennis context: Guerrieri is the nominal favourite in the available match pricing, while head-to-head summaries and recent form pages suggest a live contest rather than a forgone conclusion. In handicapper terms, the consensus is locked on the wrong side of an active event; any value case is for the player actually progressing, not for a no-action outcome.

Recent comparable markets on Challenger-level clay tend to reprice quickly once schedules are confirmed and a match is not cancelled, especially when live scores and sportsbook listings are already publishing full match markets. The key read is whether the contest is actually on court or whether a postponement, retirement, or withdrawal changes the settlement path. Flashscore, SofaScore and the ATP head-to-head page all have the match listed, which argues against a pure cancellation angle; the main catalyst is confirmation of start time and any late withdrawal notice from the Cervia draw. If play begins, the 0% consensus on Guerrieri looks fragile and the value should sit with the side listed as more likely to advance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.