Roehampton: Filip Peliwo vs Nicolas Tepmahc

Platform comparison

Market context

A qualifying-round tennis match scheduled for 18 August 2026 at Roehampton in London will determine whether Filip Peliwo or Nicolas Tepmahc advances in the draw. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for Peliwo, suggesting near-certain consensus that the Canadian will progress. Settlement occurs by 25 August 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion or rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split.

Peliwo, ranked outside the top 200 on the ATP tour, has competed primarily on Challenger and ITF circuits where consistency varies considerably. Comparable qualifying matches at grass-court events show that seeding and recent form matter substantially, yet upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of encounters involving players of similar ranking bands. The 100% probability assigned here suggests either Peliwo holds a significant seeding advantage, or Tepmahc's recent results have deteriorated markedly. Historical precedent indicates that such extreme probabilities in qualifying rounds often reflect incomplete information about player fitness or withdrawal likelihood rather than genuine match certainty.

Traders should monitor official ATP and LTA announcements regarding player withdrawals or injury disclosures in the week preceding the match. Grass-court preparation schedules and recent tournament results from both players in July and early August 2026 will clarify whether the consensus reflects genuine form advantage or market overconfidence. Weather disruptions at Roehampton, whilst uncommon in August, could trigger the rescheduling clause; any delay beyond 7 days without completion forces a 50-50 resolution regardless of match status.

Methodology

This page reviews Roehampton: Filip Peliwo vs Nicolas Tepmahc across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.