Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot

Platform comparison

Market context

The match between **Filip Pieczonka and Harold Mayot** is priced at **0% YES**, which is an extreme market stance and usually implies either a strong information gap or a belief that the listed outcome is already highly unlikely to be the one that resolves the market. Pieczonka’s public record suggests a player with far more recent traction in doubles than singles: his best singles ranking was No. 739, while his best doubles ranking reached No. 83 in May 2026, and his recent Grand Slam appearances were in doubles rather than as a singles force.[1][4][17] That profile matters because markets in lower-tier tennis can misprice players when one competitor has sparse singles data or limited recent match volume, but the consensus still sits firmly against Pieczonka here given the 0% implied probability.

From a handicapper’s angle, the historical frame points to **Mayot as the likely favourite** unless there is late evidence that the draw, injury situation, or scheduling has changed. Pieczonka’s ranking history and published results show a player whose standout results have come away from the singles main draw level, and his singles pedigree is not comparable to established ATP-level regulars.[1][3][15] In practical terms, the value case is usually not in backing the crowd’s 0% read, but in checking whether the market has overreacted to missing data, a walkover possibility, or a mistaken assumption about the fixture status.

Traders should watch for the official order of play, any withdrawal announcements, and whether either player has been moved within the draw, because the settlement rules mean a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would flip the market to 50-50 rather than produce a normal winner. The key dependency is whether the match is actually played and completed in time; if it begins but is not finished, advancement rules still decide the outcome, so late scoreline and retirement updates are decisive. With no clear recent injury or withdrawal report in the supplied sources, the base case remains that the consensus is with Mayot, while any contrarian angle rests on tournament logistics rather than a straightforward form argument.[1][4][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.