Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils

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Market context

Stan Wawrinka and Arthur Fils are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros men’s singles draw, and the market’s 14% YES price leaves Wawrinka as a clear underdog against the younger, higher-ranked Frenchman. On paper, that consensus makes sense: TennisTemple lists Fils at world No. 19 and Wawrinka at No. 119, with the age gap also stark at 21 versus 41. In a best-of-five setting at a major, though, older proven Grand Slam performers can still shorten the gap if the match becomes serve-dominated or fragmented by momentum swings, which is where any contrarian Wawrinka case would sit.

The recent Roland-Garros preview framed this as a “blockbuster” and noted that Wawrinka, despite age and stamina concerns, can still produce moments of brilliance, while Fils arrives as one of the leading local prospects. That aligns with the market: the consensus is that Fils should be the rightful favourite, but the main value question is whether the price has over-corrected against Wawrinka’s ceiling in a first-round match where nerves, conditions and early-set swings can matter. For traders, the main catalysts are the official order of play, any late fitness update, and whether the match is completed as scheduled; if it is not played at all, or drifts beyond the 7-day settlement window without a winner, the market rules point to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.