Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova faces Jil Teichmann in the Roland Garros women's draw, with the match scheduled for 24 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Samsonova suggests near-total consensus backing Teichmann, an unusually stark positioning for a professional tennis encounter where upsets and form variance are routine.

Samsonova has demonstrated capacity to reach WTA finals and compete at Grand Slam level, though consistency remains her defining weakness. Her record against top-50 opponents shows volatility—capable of dominant performances followed by early exits. Teichmann, meanwhile, has shown resilience on clay courts and tends to perform steadily in early-round matchups. Historical precedent suggests markets occasionally misprice Russian players at Roland Garros due to geopolitical factors rather than form assessment alone. The 0% reading warrants scrutiny; even clear underdogs typically retain 5–15% implied probability in professional tennis markets where a single set or tiebreak can shift outcomes dramatically.

Traders should monitor both players' clay-court preparation in the weeks preceding the tournament. Samsonova's performance at warm-up events in May will signal whether she enters Roland Garros in form or carrying injury concerns. Teichmann's recent results against comparable opponents—particularly her record in three-set matches—provide concrete data on whether the consensus reflects genuine dominance or market overconfidence. Any late withdrawal or schedule disruption would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, a tail risk worth noting given the settlement window extends only to 31 May.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.