Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships have been effectively barred from the Strait of Hormuz for weeks due to the ongoing Iran war, leaving the waterway at a near-standstill and pushing oil prices higher. President Trump has declared that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire, yet peace negotiations have stalled, prompting a naval blockade against Tehran. This conflict has severed a route carrying roughly 20% of global oil and gas, with Tehran allegedly laying mines and imposing tolls that have effectively closed the passage.

Historical precedents show the strait is fragile; it briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, with current throughput under 2% of normal levels and over 150 ships stranded. The crowd-implied probability of traffic returning to normal by June 2026 sits at 0%, reflecting consensus that the blockade and mine threats will persist. However, value may exist for contrarians betting on the 17 June US-Iran agreement, which mandates immediate commercial navigation and requires the US to lift its blockade by 19 July, creating a potential underdog scenario if Tehran complies.

Traders must watch the 19 July deadline for the US blockade lift and Iran’s subsequent "best efforts" to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe. Recent reports from AXSMarine note 25 commercial vessels passed on 25 June, the highest volume since April, suggesting a gradual but fragile strengthening of activity. The critical dependency remains whether Iran maintains authority over the strait, as the agreement allows toll-free passage for only 60 days while new arrangements are negotiated, meaning the 0% probability could shift if Iran chooses to honour the memorandum of understanding fully.

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Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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