Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office with the crowd assigning a mere 1% chance he resigns or is removed before 31 July 2026, despite polling showing his worst numbers of the second term and an eight-week war in Iran escalating. This low probability mirrors the settled consensus on the earlier March 31 market, which resolved to “No” with 0% implied odds, confirming that temporary political storms rarely trigger permanent removal without a constitutional shift[4]. Historically, only two presidents have faced removal attempts: Andrew Johnson survived Senate conviction by one vote, and Bill Clinton was impeached but not removed, illustrating that even severe political crises seldom end a presidency unless both chambers align for conviction[8].

The critical catalysts traders must monitor are not just polling dips but formal legislative actions: a wave of Democrats calling for removal over Iran threats has already emerged, and any impeachment vote in the House would be the first definitive step[9]. Kalshi now estimates the probability of impeachment and removal at nearly 28.7%, a sharp rise from 22.1% in April, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the risk of permanent exit if Republicans lose House control[1][3]. Watch the House schedule for impeachment resolutions, the Senate’s readiness to convict, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment, as these dependencies determine whether the 1% spot offers contrarian value against the consensus[5]. The value likely sits with the underdog “Yes” if the political fracture widens, while the favourite “No” remains safe only if both parties retain majorities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.