Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed, or otherwise stop serving as president before 31 May for this market to pay out, and the crowd is pricing that at 0% yes. That makes “No” the overwhelming favourite and leaves almost no visible room for a contrarian long unless a trader believes an abrupt political or health shock is being underpriced. The historical read is straightforward: sitting US presidents do not normally leave office mid-term, and the bar here is even higher because temporary incapacity does not qualify. The closest comparable cases are Nixon’s resignation, which came only under extreme and sustained pressure, and the brief 25th Amendment transfers after medical procedures, which would not settle this market as yes.

The main watchpoints are any formal White House statement, legal filing, or public announcement that Trump is stepping aside, plus any sign of a permanent transfer of power rather than a brief absence. The White House presidential actions page and live presidential appearances suggest a normal schedule, and Trump was seen publicly on 18 and 20 May in official White House and press footage, which argues against an imminent exit. Kalshi’s related “Donald Trump out as President? (Excluding death)” market also implies the broader consensus is that removal is a remote tail risk, while Polymarket’s June-end version is only at 1% yes. That leaves the near-term value case, if any, on the no side: consensus is already there, but the only plausible yes catalyst would be an unannounced resignation or removal before month-end.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.