Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Platform comparison

Market context

Nigel Farage's resignation from his Clacton seat will trigger a by-election in one of the safest Conservative constituencies in England, where the incumbent has held the seat since 2015 with commanding majorities. Count Binface, the satirical independent candidate and comedian Jon Harvey, has contested multiple elections since 2017, including the 2019 general election and the 2022 by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where he secured 3.2% of the vote. The 7% implied probability reflects a modest but non-negligible chance he'll exceed that performance in Clacton.

Binface's previous results suggest a ceiling around 3–4% in most contests, though by-elections occasionally produce inflated protest votes and higher turnout for novelty candidates. Uxbridge represented his strongest showing to date, benefiting from local anti-ULEZ sentiment and a three-way split between Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat votes. Clacton's electorate differs markedly: it is older, more economically disadvantaged, and has consistently favoured populist messaging. The constituency voted heavily for Brexit and has shown limited appetite for satirical independent candidates in recent contests.

The by-election date remains unconfirmed but is expected within months of Farage's departure. Binface's participation is not guaranteed—he must secure nomination papers and meet candidacy requirements. Turnout levels will matter considerably; lower engagement typically favours established parties over novelty candidates. The settlement window extends to August 2026, providing ample time for the election to occur, though any administrative delays or Binface's withdrawal would resolve the market to the lowest bracket.

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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