PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open is the real-world event behind this market, and the crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** means the board is pricing in a near-certain miss rather than a live winner. In handicapper terms, that leaves the favourite side extremely weak and pushes attention towards the *No* or *Other* outcomes unless the listed runner still has a viable path to the trophy.

Historically, U.S. Open outrights are dominated by a short list of elite names, but this championship still produces surprise profiles when set-up, weather and course fit break against the market leaders. Pre-event pricing this year has put Scottie Scheffler at the head of the betting, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm next in line, while the rest of the field sits at longer prices, which is the usual shape for a major with a compressed elite tier.[1][2] That kind of consensus matters because it shows where the public anchor is; the value angle, if any, tends to sit with a second-tier contender who is still inside contention but not fully reflected in the headline prices.

The main catalysts are the official tee sheet, cut status, and any late injury or withdrawal news, because this market can resolve immediately to **No** if a listed player is eliminated under tournament rules.[4] Traders also need to track whether the eventual winner is actually on the list: if an unlisted player lifts the trophy, the market resolves to **Other**. Recent pre-tournament reporting has kept Scheffler at the top and McIlroy as the chief challenger, so the contrarian read is that the “field” angle only becomes interesting if those headline names stumble early or if a live outsider like Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele or Matt Fitzpatrick builds a clear route through the weekend.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.