Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures are expected to cool slightly in 2026 as La Niña conditions persist, pushing the year’s ranking down from the record-breaking heat of 2023 and 2024. Historical data confirms 2025 as the third hottest year, meaning 2026 must surpass it to claim a top-three spot. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will beat 2024, yet Berkeley Earth specifically projects 2026 will likely settle as the fourth warmest year since 1850, with a 51% probability assigned to that exact rank [1][2].

The crowd-implied probability of 34% for a top-three finish suggests the market is pricing in a stronger-than-expected warm spike, treating 2026 as an underdog against the cooling trend. Value may sit on the contrarian side, betting the year ranks fourth or lower, aligning with the 51% probability for fourth place and the low likelihood of record warmth cited by analysts [2]. Traders should monitor the persistence of La Niña and any sudden shifts in oceanic heat content, as these are the primary dependencies for the final Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index calculation [2]. Recent data showing January 2026 as the fifth-warmest January on record reinforces the cooling narrative, though May 2026’s second-highest monthly temperature indicates volatility remains a factor [3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.