Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing zero probability that Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record a temperature of 35°C or higher on 14 August 2026. This reflects a straightforward reading of climatological norms: mid-August highs in Amsterdam typically peak around 22–23°C, with temperatures exceeding 30°C occurring in perhaps 5–10% of years and 35°C+ readings remaining genuinely rare events at this location.

Historical records show Amsterdam has experienced only a handful of days reaching 35°C in the past two decades, with the most recent occurrence in summer 2022. The city's maritime climate and northern latitude work against extreme heat accumulation. August itself sits near the warmest part of the year, yet even during notable heatwaves, sustained temperatures at 35°C or above prove exceptional rather than routine. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view this outcome as sufficiently unlikely that no meaningful odds exist.

The principal catalyst affecting this market is the European summer weather pattern that develops in late July and early August 2026. Traders monitoring seasonal forecasts from meteorological services—particularly whether a continental high-pressure system establishes itself over northern Europe—will gain early signals about heatwave risk. Recent summers have shown increasing frequency of extreme temperatures across Europe, though Amsterdam's specific geography continues to provide some insulation. Any significant shift in atmospheric patterns during the first two weeks of August could alter the calculus, but the current zero-probability assessment reflects the genuine rarity of such events at this location rather than model uncertainty.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.