Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol needs to post the day’s highest temperature, with the market currently pricing **0%** for the relevant YES outcome. On the face of it, that makes the favourite the *no-heat* side: the consensus reading is for a fairly typical late-July result rather than an exceptional hot spell, and the contract’s own settlement source is the Schiphol station reading on Wunderground rather than central Amsterdam, so airport microclimates matter.[8][3]

Historically, late July in Amsterdam is usually warm rather than hot. Long-run July climate averages cluster around a high of roughly **22°C** and a low of about **13°C**, while day-by-day July summaries show 31 July often landing in the low- to mid-20s Celsius rather than the upper 20s or 30s.[8][12][13][1] That profile supports the market’s underdog framing for a very hot print, but it also leaves room for a contrarian value angle if the synoptic set-up turns sharply warmer than normal; July extremes do occur, even if they are uncommon.[10][18]

For traders, the key catalysts are the local forecast trend, cloud cover and wind direction into the afternoon, plus any weak frontal passages that can cap the daytime high. The live Amsterdam forecast cited in the search results points to around **26°C** with a chance of drizzle and breezy south-westerlies, which is consistent with a middling rather than breakout heat outcome.[3] Because the contract settles on the highest temperature recorded by 12:00 UTC, the most relevant watchpoint is how quickly the morning warms after sunrise and whether any early cloud or marine influence suppresses the peak before midday.[3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.