Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, Ankara will record its highest temperature of the day at Esenboğa International Airport, the official weather station used for settlement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this specific date. May in Ankara typically sees late spring conditions with daytime highs ranging from 25 to 32 degrees Celsius, though extremes beyond this range are possible during heat waves or unusually cool spells.

Historical May temperatures at Esenboğa show considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, the station has recorded May highs ranging from 18°C during cooler years to 36°C during warmer ones, with a median around 28–30°C. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine consensus that an outcome is impossible. Early-stage weather markets often display skewed probabilities until sufficient liquidity and trader participation establish realistic odds across all temperature bands.

Traders should monitor European weather models from late April onwards, as these provide the most reliable seasonal forecasts for Ankara's late May conditions. The Turkish Meteorological Institute typically issues monthly outlooks in early May that can shift expectations around temperature anomalies. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as early summer heat waves affecting the eastern Mediterranean or cooler Atlantic systems pushing eastward—would reshape the probability distribution. Current seasonal forecasts suggest near-normal conditions for May 2026, though this remains subject to revision as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.