Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on 13 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data for that station.

Atlanta's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with daily highs typically ranging from 88–92°F. Historical records show that temperatures above 95°F occur in roughly 5–10% of July days at the airport station, whilst readings exceeding 100°F are rare but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Given Atlanta's reliable summer heat patterns and the specificity of a single day's peak, the true variance lies in whether atmospheric conditions—tropical moisture, upper-level heat domes, or local circulation patterns—will push the reading into less common territory.

The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts 7–10 days ahead of major weather events. Traders should monitor late June and early July atmospheric indices, including sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, which influence moisture transport into Georgia. Any significant heat dome tracking towards the Southeast in early July would be a primary catalyst. The current 0% reading may reflect genuine consensus around moderate July heat, or it may indicate sparse liquidity and limited trader engagement on a specific date months away. Historical precedent suggests Atlanta rarely experiences extreme outliers on any given July day, but the settlement window's precision means even modest heat spikes could shift probability clusters substantially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.