Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature reading at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on 24 May 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. This reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine certainty about weather conditions five months hence. Atlanta's late May climate typically sees highs in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, though the range of plausible outcomes spans from the high 70s through the low 90s depending on prevailing air mass patterns.

Historical May 24th data at Atlanta's primary weather station shows considerable variability. The highest recorded temperature on this date reached 92°F in 2000, whilst cooler years have seen highs near 78°F. The 30-year average hovers around 84°F. This spread underscores why a zero-probability assessment across all temperature bands lacks credibility—the market is essentially waiting for traders to establish initial anchors. Early movers face genuine uncertainty rather than hidden information, making the first substantive trades crucial for price discovery.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in April and early May 2026, which typically offer guidance on whether the month will trend warmer or cooler than normal. The Atlantic hurricane season's early activity and any developing El Niño or La Niña patterns could influence upper-level dynamics affecting Atlanta's weather. Local conditions matter too: urban heat island effects and specific synoptic patterns on the day itself will ultimately determine where the thermometer settles, making this a genuine weather-dependent outcome rather than a predetermined range.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.