Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on 25 May 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground's historical records. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about the range brackets or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Atlanta's May temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with historical data showing the airport station rarely exceeds 90°F in late May. The 30-year average high for 25 May sits around 82°F. Outlier years—such as unusually warm springs driven by early heat waves—have pushed readings into the low 90s, but such occurrences remain infrequent. The current flat probability distribution reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting a specific day's peak temperature nearly two years out, where seasonal patterns offer only broad guidance and no meaningful meteorological signals yet exist.

Traders should monitor spring 2026 climate patterns as May approaches, particularly whether La Niña or El Niño conditions develop and influence North American weather systems. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, issued quarterly, will provide the first substantive clues about whether May 2026 tracks warmer or cooler than the 30-year norm. Any significant value lies in identifying whether the range brackets reflect genuine uncertainty or simply thin trading; early-season heat waves occasionally push Atlanta into the upper 80s or low 90s by late May, creating potential mispricing in the higher temperature bands if consensus underestimates spring warmth.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.