Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport temperature on 10 August is a **hot-weather** proposition, with the market’s crowd-implied **0% YES** leaving the favourite firmly on the no-summer-extreme side. Seasonal baselines point to August highs around **31°C** in Beijing, with historical August records for the city commonly reaching the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anything outlandish, so a modest day-high band is the consensus starting point.[1][5][17]

That makes the main handicapping question not whether it gets warm, but whether the airport station prints a late-day spike high enough to clear the relevant band. Recent Beijing weather histories show frequent August highs around **30–34°C**, including recent 9 August readings near **31–32°C**, which suggests the market is pricing an outcome below the upper-end summer range.[10][17] The contrarian angle is that the settlement source is the **Daily Observations** table at Beijing Capital International Airport Station, not the summary box, so traders should watch the intraday observation sequence rather than relying on headline forecast figures.[2][12]

For catalysts, the key dependencies are cloud cover, rain timing and any post-midday heating on the airport site, because the highest temperature is a single intraday print and can be lifted by even a brief late-afternoon surge.[13][14] Time and Date’s live forecast for Beijing shows a sunny, warm setup with a forecast high around **91°F/33°C** and no precipitation chance, which supports the over side more than the current 0% market price implies; however, the resolution will still depend on what the airport observations actually record by the close of the settlement window.[13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.